After Further Review.......

OK folks, after some nightly analysis, we have some serious dates to work with where we can look for a turn in both equities and gold.  Let's start with the Nasdaq Composite.  This index has held up the best of the three major indices as it never violated its March lows.   That in my mind makes it a leader and worthy of analysis.  The last couple of days show that the market is in a bear market rally.  I have discussed the possibility of a rally unfolding in some of my prior pieces.  In this analysis, I am trotting out yet another tool that I use to analyze market rallies and how long they will last.  This one is called T-Theory and those of you who are not familiar with it, it is the work of Terry Laundry (http://ttheory.typepad.com/).  He developed a number of oscillators that are used to measure the momentum of market internals.  This particular chart shows the Nasdaq price plot in the top pane with the Nasdaq momentum oscillator in the bottom pane.  Notice how the oscillator declined with price off of the June 5 high.   If a trendline is drawn over the declining highs, the recent break of the downtrend line is apparent.  We then measure the length of time from the high to low in the oscillator.  That becomes the 'post' or midpoint of the 'T' formation.  Now using the principle of symmetry, we take the number of days from the high to the low point in the osillator and project that forward from the 'post' or midpoint of the 'T'.  The number of days from the high to the low is 32 (June 5 to July 7).  Now projecting forward 32 days from July 7, we get end end date of August 8.  That is the date that the 'T' formation 'expires' and should mark the end of the upmove.  See the chart below (if you can):




Now add to this the trade that we have been waiting to set up for a while now - the upcoming cycle low in gold.  This current weakness in gold came exactly on cue as it reversed when BOTH time and price level (resistance) came together.  This trade is setting up as a true thing of beauty as far as cycle work goes.  In early August - unless gold falls completely out of bed - you will want to be a buyer with both hands.    Remember the 18 - 22 week gold cycle I have mentioned more than once?  It comes into play in early August, and take a look at the chart below.  Where do the time cycles line up looking for an end to this corrective activity?  August 4, which happens to be smack in the timeframe we can expect the cycle low to be made.  Look for support in the 909 - 913 area.   



Aggressive traders have the green light to get after the long side in equities through the end of July.  Better than expected earnings along with a correction in crude oil should continue to provide a catalyst for upside action.  Heading into August, however, caution is once again warranted as equities should hit more turbulence and gold - the ultimate safe haven - should take off again to new highs.  This is getting verrrrry interesting.

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