Never Ever Trust a Bear Market
Well - it seems as though the garbage presented by Bank Of America today disguised as a 'good' earnings report did not take long to be smelled out. Early euphoria surrounding their numbers dissipated and rational traders stepped up to quell the developing intra day rally as the market continues to 'reset' from the nasty declines off of the May high. The government and SEC can do all they want to 'assist' mismanaged financial companies with taxpayer funded bailouts, revised short selling guidelines, etc. , but the bottom line is that no matter how much perfume you slap on a pig, the bacon tastes the same at slaughter time.
In a recent piece I made a case for this rally carrying into early August based on 'T' theory, which is still very possible, but tonight the futures are getting crushed due to worse than expected earnings from American Express, Apple, and Texas Instruments. This house of cards definitely has further to fall, the only question is when? As I have said during this bear market, the trend is down, and any rallies will be selling opportunities. We have a long night ahead, but it looks like tech could be the next group to be taken to the woodshed as their earnings are no doubt being affected by the slowing global economy. Anyone out there care to repeat that tired, incorrect refrain?? "It's different this time. If the US slows down, the rest of the world does not need them". Uhhhh..... let's just call that hogwash. The 'new world order' is on hold for now - at least economically. Take a look at the stock indices in China and India - or anywhere else for that matter - and tell me if anything looks 'good' out there. All of the economists and 'enlightened' analysts that spew this nonsense have nothing of value to offer. Remember - always take your signals from the market itself.
The trend remains down and only the most aggressive should be selectively probing the long side here, if at all. Bear markets are brutal. If the best the market has to offer is earnings reports that are spun to be 'not as bad as feared', there is more selling to come. Be prudent. Protect your capital.
Those of you that are contrarians and see this as a great long term buying opportunity - knock yourselves out - but don't say I didn't warn you.
In a recent piece I made a case for this rally carrying into early August based on 'T' theory, which is still very possible, but tonight the futures are getting crushed due to worse than expected earnings from American Express, Apple, and Texas Instruments. This house of cards definitely has further to fall, the only question is when? As I have said during this bear market, the trend is down, and any rallies will be selling opportunities. We have a long night ahead, but it looks like tech could be the next group to be taken to the woodshed as their earnings are no doubt being affected by the slowing global economy. Anyone out there care to repeat that tired, incorrect refrain?? "It's different this time. If the US slows down, the rest of the world does not need them". Uhhhh..... let's just call that hogwash. The 'new world order' is on hold for now - at least economically. Take a look at the stock indices in China and India - or anywhere else for that matter - and tell me if anything looks 'good' out there. All of the economists and 'enlightened' analysts that spew this nonsense have nothing of value to offer. Remember - always take your signals from the market itself.
The trend remains down and only the most aggressive should be selectively probing the long side here, if at all. Bear markets are brutal. If the best the market has to offer is earnings reports that are spun to be 'not as bad as feared', there is more selling to come. Be prudent. Protect your capital.
Those of you that are contrarians and see this as a great long term buying opportunity - knock yourselves out - but don't say I didn't warn you.






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