Putting It All Together

As promised, here is the combined results for the automated ETF models backtested through 2002.   The currency model came into the mix on June 1, 2007 in order to provide sufficient data for accurate selection.  Up until that time, the model was weighted 35% Sector Model, 35% Paired Index Model, and 30% Country Model.  From June 1, 2007, the model weightings were and are currently:
 
30% Sector Model
30% Paired Index Model
20% Country Model
20% Currency Model

These results reflect the change in allocations on June 1, 2007.  They also include $10 per side commission per trade ($20 round trip).  Dividends ARE NOT re-invested.

Year Return
2002 8.29%
2003 31.70%
2004 11.51%
2005 4.32%
2006 17.42%
2007 12.30%
2008 8.27%
Annualized 14.28%
Std Dev 11.84%
Max DD 12.02%


As you can see, the model has been positive every year and is up 8.27% in 2008 through July 31.  Maximum drawdown (peak to trough) is 12.2%, and standard deviation is a very manageable 11.84%.  The lower volatility style is demonstrated by this month's picks as these individual models can hold both long and short positions which not only act as a downside hedge, but also reduce gut-wrenching volatility.  If this market starts a new uptrend from here, this model will lag initially, but when it gets back in synch with the market, it will perform very well as demonstrated by the very respectable 31.7% gain in 2003. 

This combined model can also be paired with a fixed income strategy of your choice for further diversification and even lower volatility. 

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