Bounces Nearing Completion?
The larger degree corrections that have unfolded off of the July 23 low look to be nearing a critical juncture. Both the Dow and S&P 500 are in the process of tracing out symmetrical A-B-C patterns which should take the Dow to approximately 12,000 and the S&P to approximately 1325. The Nasdaq is working on an even larger degree A-B-C pattern as measured off of its March low, which held when that low gave way in the other indices. Nasdaq resistance comes in at 2563. Of course there is no guarantee that the indices will reverse at these price points, but if they do, that increases the odds that such a reversal would mean that a top of some duration would be in. Time cycles come in on August 18 on daily charts for both the Dow and S&P, while time cyces do not line up on the Nasdaq until Sept 12 - 19. Such a disparity in time cycle alignment among major indices is a cause for pause, especially when the Nasdaq has broken its downsloping resistance line off of last November's high, so the 'outlier' in time cycle alignment can not be ignored due to the Nasdaq's leadership status. Here is the weekly Nasdaq chart:

Another point to consider is that the NYSE Composite continues to lag. It is still nowhere near its July 23 high while the above, more narrowly focused indices have all cleared that hurdle with relative ease. Below are daily charts of the Dow, S&P500, and NYSE Composite:

S&P500:

NYSE Composite:

If the bear market is to resume, the end of next week is a prime time window for it to show its teeth, but if the Nasdaq can continue to show good leadership qualities, then a real tug of war could develop between the bulls and bears.

Another point to consider is that the NYSE Composite continues to lag. It is still nowhere near its July 23 high while the above, more narrowly focused indices have all cleared that hurdle with relative ease. Below are daily charts of the Dow, S&P500, and NYSE Composite:

S&P500:

NYSE Composite:

If the bear market is to resume, the end of next week is a prime time window for it to show its teeth, but if the Nasdaq can continue to show good leadership qualities, then a real tug of war could develop between the bulls and bears.






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