Prediction on Target So Far

Recall that on August 16 I wrote: 

As of this point (barring further advances in the Nasdaq), the time frame for this decline to end would be around Monday, September 15.  So we are looking for a decline to at least 2147 in the Nasdaq by September 15 if things head south from here.

Unfortunately, that target may indeed simply be a minimum price target.  This decline could go much deeper.  After once again doing their best to blindside the shorts with another weekend announcement in the latest version of 'US Government to the rescue', the feds were unable to rescue this market from seeking a more rational price level based on earnings and economic prospects.  

The surprise over the last few weeks has been strength in the dollar and weakness in crude oil and gold.  The dollar ran into resistance in the 80 area, but in spite of a down day on the dollar, crude and gold sold off sharply today.  The big question now is how much longer foreign central banks will continue to hold dollars with the US Treasury playing sugar daddy to mismanaged companies?  Now the US auto makers have their hats in hand looking for $50 billion in low rate loans.  The UAW needs to open its coffers there, because their rich contracts over the years have contributed to this problem.  If I have mismanaged my personal finances, where is my bailout?  Makes sense doesn't it? 

The fact that the federal government is not letting the market work out its own issues is telling me that there is something much deeper at work here than we know.  Stay tuned.  This is getting very interesting.   

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