Still Looking For A Bounce
My indicators called for a bounce the other day and we got one - sort of. Tuesday's intra day bounce is all the market could muster given the weight of Lehman, AIG, Washington Mutual, Russia, etc. The indicators are still showing a bullish divergence as the Nasdaq and NYSE Composite plunged to new multi year lows. The Nasdaq Momentum oscillator is still holding well above its July low. The NYSE momentum oscillator is showing the same configuration. Yes the futures are up sharply this morning, but the way this market has been trading, those gains could dissipate in the first 30 minutes of trading. With the SEC cracking down on naked short selling and remaking the trading landscape, the shorts had better be careful here. I can smell a bottom, but we need to wait for confirmation. Do NOT try to get a sense of a bottom by watching the news stories. They are always late and the herd mentality of crowd psychology takes a while to turn. Fear and pessimism are as bad as I have ever seen. With that said - Do not try and be a hero here by jumping in too soon. If we get a rally here, we will more than likely come back down and test these lows, so there is plenty of time. If the selling continues, then we stand aside until the smoke clears. As always, the market itself will be our guide. Here is the Nasdaq chart:






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