Are We Finally Near A Shake Out?

This improbable rally has caught many by surprise as it has continued to grind higher without a 'shake out' or serious correction along the way.  The simple A-B-C correction in June-July has been said to suffice, but that had the feel of an orderly pullback in an upward trending market. 

In prior posts, I have pointed to September 11 (as calculated by T-Theory) as a probable time window for a correction to unfold, and now it looks as if the Nasdaq Composite is heading right into resistance as September 11 approaches. 

In the daily chart of the Nasdaq Composite below, I have plotted a resistance band which contains the 50% retracement level of the October 2007 - March 2009 decline along with the 61.8% retracement of the May 2008 - March 2009 decline.  Surrounding those two levels is a red line and a green line.  These are Fibonacci price levels computed off of actual highs and lows, not range retracement levels.  Notice how the lower Fibonacci band from 1748 - 1768 provided short term resistance in May, then support as the June - July correction wound down.  The price pattern near the higher Fib band (2046 - 2070) is similar to the price action in early May as the index labored to get through the band, then finally broke through.  This time, however, the price action is more volatile as the price swings are wider as the upward momentum has encountered the band.  This demonstrates a struggle for the bulls in trying to absorb new overhead supply coming on to the market.  Momentum (the blue RSI plot in the lower pane) is showing serious divergences as well, saying that the move is stalling. 

I fully expect this resistance to hold and a serious 'shake out' correction to begin within the next week.



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