On November 19, I wrote about the Dow being ripe for a correction based on the Fibonacci resistance band high at 10,466 and a weakening volume profile.  Following the action of the last couple of weeks, that picture still has not changed. 

Notice in the chart below that the Dow has not yet been able to break cleanly through the Fibonacci resistance band since entering the band on November 11.  Now take a look at the volume oscillator in the window below price.  This oscillator is simply the difference between the 10 day moving average of volume and the 25 day moving average of volume.  When volume surges, the 10 day moving average moves higher faster than the 25 day moving average, causing the oscillator to move higher.  When volume declines, the oscillator moves lower, as the 10 day moving average falls faster than the 25 day moving average. 

The pattern being traced out by the volume oscillator is not encouraging for the bulls.  Notice how the highs and lows from July through September (the black arrows) showed a normal, healthy volume pattern.  The volume oscillator rose into the highs (higher volume on rallies) and dropped into the lows (lower volume on pullbacks).  Now take a look at the two red arrows at the right side of the chart.  See how volume increased heading into the October low, showing increased selling pressure, followed by a reduction in volume heading into the November high, showing weak buying interest.  This flip flop in highs and lows on the volume oscillator vs. price is not a good sign as the Dow struggles to hold a close above 10,466 (the upper end of the Fibonacci price band).   That fact coupled with the visible decline in daily volume (bottom pane) off of the October low says that there is more risk here than the media would have us believe.

The trend remains up, and as I have said previously, you can not fight the weak dollar, cheap money policy of the Fed, but the risks in this market are increasing.