Nasdaq Advance/Decline Oscillator Forecasting Weakness
To show just how disjointed the signals given by the market have been, today's entry is almost contradictory to yesterday's piece regarding copper confirming the high in equities. For months, this rally has shown weakness in two key technical areas, volume and momentum. Volume is normally necessary to push price higher as buyers come in and create an imbalance in the market, pushing the bid prices higher. I say 'normally' because healthy volume patterns have not been necessary in this rally with the continued grind higher. Good momentum shows that price is moving with strength relative to where it has been in the past.
Today's chart of the Nasdaq Composite shows the index plotted with the Nasdaq Advance/Decline Oscillator. It is a good oscillator to use because it is not based on Nasdaq price momentum, but on Nasdaq advance/decline data. This is an oscillator that I have shown in the past, and now it is flashing a very troublesome signal. In the chart below, I have marked peaks in the oscillator with a vertical dashed line. Peaks in the oscillator show that market internals are not supporting further upside movement until a correction of some sort unfolds. That correction could be either a selloff or a simple chop sideways.
The oscillator peaked on march 10 and is now heading south while the price of the Nasdaq levitates near its high. This type of action is bearish as price seems to have nothing but air underneath it. Think of the coyote in the old road runner cartoons taking that one last step off of the edge of the cliff. He is suspended in mid air for a moment as he realizes his mistake but by then it is too late. Could the market be setting up for a 'coyote ugly' moment? Watch this week's jobs report. The equity market is closed on Friday, so Monday could be a very interesting day indeed.

Today's chart of the Nasdaq Composite shows the index plotted with the Nasdaq Advance/Decline Oscillator. It is a good oscillator to use because it is not based on Nasdaq price momentum, but on Nasdaq advance/decline data. This is an oscillator that I have shown in the past, and now it is flashing a very troublesome signal. In the chart below, I have marked peaks in the oscillator with a vertical dashed line. Peaks in the oscillator show that market internals are not supporting further upside movement until a correction of some sort unfolds. That correction could be either a selloff or a simple chop sideways.
The oscillator peaked on march 10 and is now heading south while the price of the Nasdaq levitates near its high. This type of action is bearish as price seems to have nothing but air underneath it. Think of the coyote in the old road runner cartoons taking that one last step off of the edge of the cliff. He is suspended in mid air for a moment as he realizes his mistake but by then it is too late. Could the market be setting up for a 'coyote ugly' moment? Watch this week's jobs report. The equity market is closed on Friday, so Monday could be a very interesting day indeed.







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